Four Scenarios for U.S.-China Relations

US-China Scenarios Report

How the Sino-US relationship will evolve over the next 10 years is a critical question for the globe.  PAX sapiens, in a partnership with the Grandview Institution and Reos Partners, recently released the results of a research project designed to explore answers to that question.

A bilateral group of U.S. and Chinese experts drawn from a variety of backgrounds and perspectives on the question worked together to generate a consensus set of possible scenarios for the future of the relationship. 

An overview of the scenarios is available at https://uschinascenarios.com/ and the full report can be accessed through a request from that site.

These four scenarios identify four potential ways the relationship may evolve:

Drift, in which the U.S. and China continue to manage conflict and compete across multiple domains.

War, in which the relationship between the U.S. and China deteriorates to the point of active conflict.

Blocs, in which separation between the US and China leads to a reorganization of the world into non-engaged spheres.

Networks, in which the U.S. and China disengage, but remain part of a global society that mediates engagement between the two and allows for effective, if indirect, interaction.